전체기사 최신뉴스 GAM
KYD 디데이
글로벌

속보

더보기

크로츠너, '바젤 II 도입' 주제 연설문(원문)

기사입력 :

최종수정 :

※ 본문 글자 크기 조정

  • 더 작게
  • 작게
  • 보통
  • 크게
  • 더 크게

※ 번역할 언어 선택

Governor Randall S. Kroszner
At the Standard & Poor's Bank Conference 2007, New York, New York
November 13, 2007

Implementing Basel II in the United States

Good afternoon. I would like to thank Standard and Poor's for the invitation to speak today at this impressive conference. I am quite pleased to be able to offer some remarks on Basel II implementation in the United States. I am even more pleased that in today's speech I can now talk about U.S. implementation of Basel II in the present tense, since within the past ten days each of the U.S. banking agencies approved the U.S. final rule for Basel II. While work on Basel II--for both bankers and supervisors--is far from complete, adoption of the Basel II rule is nevertheless a very important accomplishment.

I would also like to offer thanks and extend congratulations to all the parties involved in the successful adoption of Basel II. This includes staff at each of the U.S. banking agencies, who worked tirelessly and with incredible determination and patience to see this rulemaking to its completion, as well as the principals at the other agencies, who worked very hard to find common ground and develop a rule that would serve the public interest and satisfy each of our agencies' objectives. Of course, I would also like to thank the many industry participants--some of whom may be here today--who spent considerable time and effort providing valuable comments on our proposals over the past several years. Your contributions made the final rule a much better product. Developing Basel II was like running a marathon, and even though some of us may have hit the wall and wanted to drop out at mile 20, we persevered and successfully reached the finish line. I am proud of what we have all accomplished.

Completion of the U.S. Final Rule
In the banking industry, most of the innovation and evolution in risk-management practices occur on a continuous basis, generally in small steps. Updates to banking regulations, on the other hand, typically occur in large jumps. As was the case with Basel I nearly twenty years ago, I consider the adoption of Basel II to be a major step forward in banking regulation in the United States. Importantly, we are also working on an additional proposal, known as the standardized approach, to offer non-core banks a set of regulatory capital requirements that have more risk sensitivity than the current Basel I rules, but less complexity than the advanced approaches in the Basel II final rule.

One of the main reasons we were able to complete the Basel II final rule successfully, I believe, was our renewed focus on the fundamental rationale for developing Basel II: enhancing the safety and soundness of the U.S. banking system by providing more-risk-sensitive capital requirements for our largest, most complex banks and improving risk management practices at those institutions. Moreover, we endorsed the notion that the U.S. rule would foster international consistency and be less burdensome on banks if it adhered more closely to the international Basel II framework finalized in 2006--and if it also aligned as closely as possible with what banks themselves were doing for risk management.

These were principles that I emphasized as I represented the Federal Reserve in interagency discussions, and I believe my counterparts shared these views. Perhaps our ability to refocus stemmed from a fresh set of comments received on our proposals, our renewed commitment to getting things right, and the infusion of some new approaches brought to the table. Regardless, we of course owe a huge debt of gratitude to our predecessors, who broke the hard ground in the long U.S. rulemaking process.

Reasons for Adopting Basel II
I would like to return briefly to our reasons for adopting Basel II, since it is useful to remember why we undertook so much effort to see it through. While the existing Basel I capital regime was a major step forward when introduced in 1988, it has become outdated for large, complex banking organizations. Retaining Basel I for these institutions would have widened the gap between their regulatory capital requirements and their actual risk profiles, generating further incentives for regulatory arbitrage to take advantage of that gap.

In contrast to the simple risk-bucketing approach of Basel I, in which exposures to obligors of varying creditworthiness were given the same capital treatment, the new Basel II rules require banks to distinguish among the credit quality of individual borrowers. For example, under Basel I almost all first-lien residential mortgage exposures are subject to the same risk weight regardless of the borrower's creditworthiness, whereas Basel II provides for a more refined differentiation of low- versus high-credit-quality mortgage borrowers. Likewise, Basel I is inadequate for dealing with capital markets transactions such as highly structured asset-backed securities. Basel II, on the other hand, provides a much more refined approach by requiring banks to hold capital commensurate with the actual risks of such transactions. Recent market events highlight why a robust and independent assessment of risk on the part of banks is so important. The enhanced risk-sensitivity of the Basel II advanced approaches creates positive incentives for banks to lend to more-creditworthy counterparties and to lend against good collateral, by requiring banks to hold more capital against higher-risk exposures.

The Federal Reserve's role as the nation's central bank reinforces our belief in the importance of maintaining prudent and risk-sensitive capital requirements for financial institutions. Financial stability is enhanced when banks' regulatory capital measures adequately reflect risk, as well as when banks continually improve their risk-management practices. Since the Basel II regime is far superior to the current Basel I regime in aligning regulatory capital requirements with risk and fostering continual improvements in risk management for our largest and most complex banking organizations, I believe it will contribute to a more resilient financial system as a whole.

In addition, let me emphasize that the Basel II regulatory capital framework establishes a more coherent relationship between regulatory measures of capital adequacy and the day-to-day risk management conducted by banks. That is, it builds on risk-management tools, such as credit-risk rating systems and economic capital, that are already in use at sophisticated financial institutions. As a result, Basel II will be better able than the current system to adapt over time to innovations in banking and financial markets and will reduce incentives for arbitrage that arise from the gap between what the regulators require and what sound economic risk management requires.

Moving Ahead with Basel II Implementation
Next Steps for Supervisors
I used the analogy of running a marathon earlier, describing how the final rule represented a finish line of sorts for the U.S. banking agencies. Alas, I'm afraid that we cannot rest because in fact we have simply passed the baton from the runner in the first stage of the race--rule finalization--to the runner in the next stage--implementation. Successful implementation of Basel II will require additional hard work and determination. As most of you know, the agencies have for some time been preparing for Basel II implementation by working to integrate Basel II into our day-to-day supervisory processes. With completion of the final rule, we must now be ready to pace ourselves through another long, intensive, but ultimately rewarding, effort.

The agencies are already working hard to foster consistency across banks and across the agencies. We are building upon the cooperation already established through our work on the final rule and our efforts to prepare supervisory staff for the Basel II qualification process. Our supervisory staffs have been meeting regularly for some time to align qualification approaches, iron out any differences, and ensure that each bank subject to Basel II is treated appropriately and consistently. We also remain attentive to the way in which the framework is implemented in other countries, so that we can minimize the burden placed on banks by having to meet multiple national rules. I hope our decision to align the definition of default for wholesale exposures more closely with the definition used internationally, for example, sends a positive signal about our intentions to increase cross-border consistency and reduce unnecessary burdens that can distract banks from one of the fundamental goals of Basel II--improving risk management.

Of course, the agencies need to move ahead with Basel II implementation carefully and with our eyes wide open. The advanced approaches are a significant change from our current, time-tested, risk-based capital rules, and we have therefore embedded the transitional safeguards set forth in the agencies' 2006 proposal into the U.S. Basel II rule. These safeguards will help ensure that capital levels remain strong and that we have sufficient opportunity to assess the framework before full implementation. Importantly, we also are retaining the leverage ratio and our existing prompt-corrective-action framework.

As noted in the agencies' July press release, we are committed to a robust and transparent study of the framework during the transitional phase to assess its overall effectiveness, and we will address any material deficiencies that we identify. This study should include active and meaningful dialogue among the agencies, the industry, market participants, Congress, and other interested parties. This is consistent with my view that whenever regulators undertake a major regulatory change, a careful and thorough empirical review of the effectiveness of the regulation is extremely valuable. Such a review can help assess whether the goals for the rule are being met, whether the benefits of the rule exceed the costs, and how the rule can be made more effective and less burdensome.

In addition to this study, during and after the transitional phase we will be relying upon ongoing, detailed analyses to evaluate continuously the results of the new framework in operation. A primary objective of this ongoing review will be to ensure that capital levels remain prudent. For example, we will respond if we see unreasonable declines in capital requirements at individual institutions that do not appear to be supported by either those banks' own internal capital-adequacy assessments or by our supervisory view of those institutions' risks and how well those risks are managed.

As has long been the case with our capital rules, we expect that adjustments to the capital framework will be made over time to address industry and market developments, any potential shortcomings in the rule identified in our review and analysis during implementation, and new and improved techniques of risk management.

Next Steps for Bankers
Completion of the Basel II rulemaking process means that banks adopting the new rule must also gear up their efforts. Of course we recognize the substantial work that bankers have undertaken over the past several years to prepare themselves for Basel II. But, understandably, they have had to wait for completion of the final rule to see how the agencies would articulate certain requirements--some of them quite detailed. Therefore, it would seem that bankers need to read the rule very carefully and take time to understand how their own bank will be able to meet its requirements.

As stated in the final rule, and as the U.S. agencies articulated several years ago, the key instrument in the qualification process is a bank's implementation plan. This written implementation plan, approved by a bank's board of directors, must describe in detail how the bank complies, or intends to comply, with the rule's qualification requirements.

Specifically, the plan must describe how the bank intends to address the gaps it has identified between its existing practices and the qualification requirements set forth in the rule for the advanced approaches, covering all consolidated subsidiaries. The implementation plan also must include objective, measurable milestones--including delivery dates--and a target date when the bank expects its advanced approaches to be fully operational. The bank must establish and maintain a comprehensive and sound planning and governance process to oversee implementation efforts, and must demonstrate to its supervisor that it meets the qualification requirements.

Banks subject to the final rule on a mandatory basis, the core banks, have up to six months to adopt an implementation plan. Of course, banks may always submit their plans earlier, and I understand that a number of core banks are working toward that goal. This deadline for submission of plans by core banks is intended to prevent delays in starting implementation efforts. However, the final rule provides flexibility and gives banks adopting Basel II ample time to fully meet the qualification requirements once they have adopted an implementation plan. Specifically, a bank's plan may include developmental goals for full implementation for up to thirty-six months from the effective date of the final rule.

As supervisors, we will take the qualification requirements seriously, expecting banks to meet both the letter and the spirit of those requirements. Thus, we strongly recommend that banks undertake their own sober and frank appraisal of their ability to meet the final rule. Systems development can take time, for example, and it is important to make sure that these systems function appropriately. While I believe that expeditious adoption of Basel II will have significant benefits, it is of the utmost importance that the implementation not be rushed but be undertaken thoughtfully and deliberately.

After a bank has submitted a credible implementation plan to its primary supervisor, it must then begin a parallel run lasting at least four consecutive calendar quarters, during which the bank's supervisor must determine the bank's compliance with the qualification requirements to be satisfactory. During the parallel run, a bank remains subject to the Basel I risk-based capital rules for all applicable regulatory and supervisory purposes, but the bank also must calculate its capital ratios using the advanced approaches and report pertinent information to its supervisor. It is only upon notification from its supervisor that a bank can move into a series of three transitional periods (each lasting at least one year), during which the cumulative reductions of the bank's risk-based capital requirements are limited. Supervisory approval is needed to move to a subsequent transitional floor-level and then to move from the transitional floors to stand-alone use of the Basel II rules.

Importantly, as bankers move forward with implementation, they should not lose sight of Pillars 2 and 3, which may ultimately be more important to the success of Basel II than Pillar 1, which has received the bulk of the attention so far. Under Pillar 2, banks are required to have an internal process--which will be subject to rigorous supervisory review--for ensuring that they are holding enough overall capital to support their entire risk profile. Thus, Pillar 2 should be a key area of focus for banks implementing Basel II. The preamble to the final rule describes the steps that supervisors will take under Pillar 2, namely that supervisors will take into account a bank's internal capital-adequacy assessment process--known as its ICAAP--as well as the bank's compliance with the minimum capital requirements set forth in this rule, and all other relevant information.

The agencies expect banks to implement and continually update the fundamental elements of a sound ICAAP--identifying and measuring material risks, setting capital-adequacy goals that relate to risk, and ensuring the integrity of internal capital-adequacy assessments. A bank is expected to hold adequate capital against all of its material risks, particularly those risks not covered or not adequately quantified in the risk-based capital requirements--such as liquidity risk or interest-rate risk in the banking book. In general, a bank's ICAAP should reflect an appropriate level of conservatism to account for uncertainty in risk identification, risk mitigation or control, quantitative processes, and any use of modeling. In most cases, this conservatism will result in levels of capital or capital ratios above minimum regulatory requirements to be regarded as adequate.

Pillar 3 is a key mechanism for banks to communicate to market participants about their risk profiles, their associated levels of capital, and the manner in which they are meeting the requirements in the final rule. In addition to providing information about its various components of regulatory capital and its minimum capital requirements and ratios, a bank must disclose information about how it measures and manages credit risk, operational risk, equity risk, and interest-rate risk in non-trading activities, as well as the range of risks related to securitizations. For example, a bank has to describe the operation of its credit risk rating system as well as the data used in parameter estimates for credit losses.

Some of these disclosure requirements will be new for banks but others are already required by, or are consistent with, existing U.S. generally accepted accounting principles, Securities and Exchange Commission disclosure requirements, or bank regulatory reporting requirements. As a strong believer in market discipline and the importance of information in market transactions, I believe Pillar 3 will improve bank disclosures about risk profiles and enhance discussions between bankers and market participants about risk-management practices.

Of course, while we want to promote consistency, we must also allow bankers some flexibility in meeting the Basel II requirements and permit a reasonable amount of diversity of practices across banking organizations. Such flexibility will allow banks to use and readily improve their existing risk-measurement and risk-management practices. More to the point, as supervisors we should actively encourage such improvements. As we move forward, we encourage banks to raise issues as they try to meet the rule's requirements; in other words, we want banks to maintain an ongoing dialogue about implementation with their supervisors, who stand ready to answer questions and assist banks in interpreting Basel II requirements.

Standardized Approach Proposal for Non-Core Banks
Before concluding, I would like to discuss the agencies' additional plans for revising capital rules, specifically plans for those banks not subject to the advanced approaches of Basel II. Some commentators on the earlier Basel II and Basel IA proposals voiced concerns that adoption of a new capital framework for the largest and most complex U.S. banking organizations could disadvantage other U.S. banking organizations, particularly the smaller banks. We understand that banks not required to adopt Basel II are facing a choice about whether to opt-in to the advanced approaches. Some of these banks may be sophisticated institutions that exhibit sound risk management but do not quite meet the criteria to be core banks. The agencies recognize that such institutions should be afforded an alternative for more-risk-sensitive capital requirements, but one that is not as complex as the advanced approaches.

In this regard, the agencies have responded by committing to proposing a "standardized" approach instead of Basel IA. Specifically, the staffs are currently working on a notice of proposed rulemaking that would implement some of the simpler approaches for both credit risk and operational risk from the Basel II framework--referred to as the standardized approach. The proposal is being developed as an optional risk-based capital framework for all banking organizations that are not required to adopt the advanced approaches. We also expect to retain our existing Basel I-based regulatory capital framework for those smaller banks that would prefer to remain under that regime.

The proposal for the standardized approach will take into consideration relevant commentary received in response to the Basel IA and Basel II proposed rules that were published in late 2006 and should, in essence, modernize the Basel I-based rules without imposing a substantial implementation burden. Among other things, the proposal is being designed both to provide greater differentiation across corporate exposures based on borrowers' underlying credit quality and to recognize a broader spectrum of credit-risk mitigation techniques. The agencies are also considering how to implement Pillars 2 and 3 of the Basel II framework in the standardized proposal in a manner that is commensurate with banks' complexity and risk profiles. Our goal is to realize the benefits of these two pillars without imposing excessive regulatory burden and without creating competitive advantages or disadvantages for different types of banks.

I expect this proposal to be presented to the Board for consideration within the next several months, and I encourage all interested parties to review and comment on this proposal once it has been issued. We are keenly aware of the need for capital requirements to make sense from the standpoint of both safety-and-soundness and competitiveness; we recognize that a one-size-fits-all approach is probably not the best for our banking system, in light of our wide range of institutions. We remain sensitive to the principle that if we have multiple regulatory capital frameworks, they must work together to improve the safety and soundness of our entire banking system without artificially creating competitive inequalities. Our goal is to have the standardized approach ready for implementation concurrently with the start of the first Basel II transition phase.

Conclusion
The U.S. banking agencies have reached an important milestone in adopting the final rule for Basel II. Our focus on the fundamentals of improving risk management consistent with safety and soundness, and on international consistency, has been key to achieving this success. Obviously, however, effective implementation of Basel II is as important as, if not more important than, the rulemaking process. It is imperative that we observe how the new rule works in practice--assessing carefully both its advantages and its limitations. I am confident that both banking organizations and the supervisory community are up to the challenge. It is also important to modernize the existing Basel I-based regulatory capital framework to improve the risk sensitivity of capital requirements at the non-core banks, by offering a standardized option.

Finally, we should all bear in mind that implementation of Basel II--and, more significantly, the improvements in risk measurement and management that will be required--will not be a one-time event, but rather an ongoing process. Basel II is designed to accommodate innovation and change as markets and risk-measurement and -management evolve over time. As one marathon is completed, yet another begins.

[관련키워드]

[뉴스핌 베스트 기사]

사진
한국 설상 첫 金 최가온은 누구 [서울=뉴스핌] 장환수 스포츠전문기자= 한국 스키·스노보드가 오랫동안 꿈꾸던 올림픽 금메달의 주인공은 17세 3개월 여고생이었다. 세화여고 3학년 최가온이 생애 첫 올림픽 무대에서 극적인 역전 드라마를 쓰며, 한국 설상 종목 사상 첫 동계올림픽 금메달을 품에 안았다. 최가온은 13일(한국시간) 이탈리아 리비뇨 스노파크에서 열린 2026 밀라노·코르티나담페초 동계 올림픽 스노보드 여자 하프파이프 결선에서 90.25점을 받아 클로이 김(미국·88.00점)과 오노 미쓰키(일본·85.00점)를 제치고 우승을 차지했다. 한국 선수가 스키·스노보드 종목에서 올림픽 금메달을 따낸 것은 이번이 처음이다. [리비뇨 로이터=뉴스핌] 장환수 스포츠전문기자= 최가온이 13일 스노보드 여자 하프파이프 결선에서 우승한 뒤 금메달을 깨무는 세리머니를 하고 있다. 2026.02.13 zangpabo@newspim.com [리비뇨 로이터=뉴스핌] 장환수 스포츠전문기자= 세화여고 3학년 최가온이 13일 스노보드 여자 하프파이프 결선에서 1차 시기 부상을 털고 일어나, 3차 시기에서 클로이 김을 제치고 극적인 역전 금메달을 따낸 뒤 태극기를 든 채 미소를 짓고 있다. 2026.02.13 zangpabo@newspim.com 최가온은 이미 국제 무대에선 검증받은 올림픽 금메달 후보였다. 2023년 1월 미국 애스펀 X게임에서 14세 2개월의 나이로 슈퍼파이프를 제패하며 클로이 김의 최연소 우승 기록을 갈아치웠고, 한국 최초 X게임 금메달리스트라는 타이틀을 거머쥐었다. 같은 해 12월엔 월드컵 데뷔전에서 곧바로 우승을 차지하며 월드 클래스 반열에 올랐다. 그러나 상승 곡선은 큰 부상으로 한 차례 끊겼다. 2024년 1월 스위스 락스 월드컵 훈련 도중 허리를 크게 다쳐 척추 골절 판정을 받았고, 수술 후 1년 가까이 재활에 매달려야 했다. 유소년 시절부터 '천재 보더'로 불렸던 10대 선수에게 커리어 전체를 흔들 수 있는 일격이었다. 돌아온 곳도, 방식도 드라마 같았다. 부상을 당했던 바로 그 락스에서 2025년 1월 복귀전을 치른 그는 월드컵 동메달을 따내며 재기에 성공했다. 이후 중국·미국·스위스에서 열린 월드컵 하프파이프를 연달아 제패하며 출전한 월드컵을 모조리 석권하는 신화를 만들었다. 월드컵에서도 1차 시기 부진 후 역전 우승을 여러 차례 연출해 '역전의 명수'라는 별명을 얻었고, 그 흐름은 고스란히 올림픽까지 연결됐다. [리비뇨 로이터=뉴스핌] 장환수 스포츠전문기자= 최가온이 13일 스노보드 여자 하프파이프 결선에서 극적인 역전 금메달을 차지한 뒤 시상대에서 눈물을 터뜨리자 클로이 김이 활짝 웃으며 쳐다보고 있다. 2026.02.13 zangpabo@newspim.com 이번 대회 결선은 그야말로 최가온 커리어를 상징하는 한 편의 시나리오였다. 1차 시기 두 번째 점프에서 보드가 파이프 턱에 걸리며 크게 넘어졌다. 한동안 일어나지 못한 채 쓰러져 있었고, 의료진이 슬로프 안으로 들어와 상태를 살폈다. 2차 시기를 앞두곤 전광판에 'DNS(출전하지 않는다)'가 잠시 표기될 정도로 기권 가능성까지 거론됐다. 그럼에도 그는 두 번째 런에서 다시 슬로프 위에 섰다. 하지만 2차 시기에서도 초반에 또 한 번 넘어지며 점수를 만들지 못했다. 3차 시기를 앞둔 최가온의 점수는 10.00점, 결선 12명 가운데 11위. 반면 올림픽 3연패에 도전하던 클로이 김은 이미 1차 시기에서 88.00점을 받아 여유 있게 1위를 지키고 있었다. 눈발까지 다시 굵어지며 코스가 무거워진 최악의 조건 속에서, 최가온은 무리한 1080도 회전 대신 현실적인 선택을 택했다. 1080도 이상의 초고난도 기술을 덜어내고 900도, 720도 회전으로 루틴을 재구성한 뒤, 세 번째 런을 완주하는 데 모든 걸 걸었다. 결과는 90.25점. 깔끔한 착지와 구성으로 심판 점수를 끌어올리며 단숨에 1위로 도약했다. 이제 남은 건 클로이 김의 마지막 런. 하지만 김은 2·3차 시기 모두 도중에 넘어지며 점수를 보태지 못했고, 결국 최가온의 금메달이 확정됐다. [리비뇨 로이터=뉴스핌] 장환수 스포츠전문기자= 최가온이 13일 스노보드 여자 하프파이프 결선 1차 시기에서 두 번째 점프 후 보드가 눈 턱에 걸리며 넘어지고 있다. 2026.02.13 zangpabo@newspim.com [리비뇨 로이터=뉴스핌] 장환수 스포츠전문기자= 최가온이 13일 스노보드 여자 하프파이프 결선 1차 시기에서 넘어지자 의료진이 달려와 상태를 살펴보고 있다. 2026.02.13 zangpabo@newspim.com 최가온의 출발은 거창하지 않았다. 스노보드를 취미로 즐기던 아버지를 따라 보드를 타기 시작했고, 어린 시절엔 피겨 여왕 김연아를 동경해 피겨스케이팅을 먼저 배웠다. 그러다 하프파이프 특유의 공중 연기에 매료돼 보드를 선택했고, 가족의 헌신적인 뒷바라지를 받으며 세계 정상급 라이더로 성장했다. 겉으로는 수줍은 평범한 여고생이지만, 파이프 위에 올라서면 누구보다 승부욕이 강한 선수라는 건 코치와 동료들이 입을 모아 말하는 대목이다. 허리 부상 당시에도 "아픈 것보다 대회에 못 나가는 게 더 속상했다"는 이야기가 나올 만큼, 경쟁과 무대 자체를 갈망하는 타입이다. 이번 금메달로 그는 올림픽 여자 하프파이프 최연소 금메달리스트 자리에도 이름을 새겼다. 17세 3개월에 금메달을 목에 걸며, 2018 평창에서 17세 10개월로 금메달을 땄던 클로이 김의 최연소 우승 기록을 7개월 앞당겼다. zangpabo@newspim.com 2026-02-13 06:48
사진
알파벳 '100년물 채권'에 거품 경고 [뉴욕=뉴스핌] 김민정 특파원 = 인공지능(AI) 인프라 구축을 위해 막대한 자금을 쏟아붓고 있는 알파벳이 영국 시장에서 발행한 100년 만기 회사채가 폭발적인 인기를 끌었다. 하지만 월가 전략가들은 이를 두고 "신용 시장의 사이클 후반부 과열을 보여주는 최신 신호"라며 경고의 목소리를 높였다. 12일(현지시간) 블룸버그통신과 CNBC에 따르면 알파벳은 지난 10일 영국 파운드화 채권 시장에서 10억파운드 규모(1조9600억 원)의 100년 만기 채권을 발행했다. 이는 알파벳의 첫 파운드화 표시 채권이자 총 200억달러 규모의 다중 통화 자금 조달 계획의 일부다. 이번 100년물 채권에는 발행 규모의 약 10배에 달하는 주문이 몰렸으며 발행 금리는 영국 국채 10년물보다 120bp(1.20%포인트) 높은 수준에서 결정됐다. 알파벳은 지난주 올해 자본지출 규모가 1850억달러에 달할 것으로 예상된다고 밝혔다. 경쟁사인 오라클과 아마존 마이크로소프트 등도 인프라 지출을 늘리고 있어 빅테크 기업들의 총부채 발행 규모는 향후 5년간 3조달러에 이를 것으로 전망된다. 윈드 시프트 캐피털의 빌 블레인 최고경영자(CEO)는 이번 거래가 AI 확장을 위해 공공 및 민간 시장에서 조달되고 있는 부채가 역사적인 규모를 벗어난 수준임을 반영한다고 지적했다. 블레인 CEO는 CNBC와의 인터뷰에서 "적당히 높은 쿠폰(금리)의 100년 만기 채권을 팔 기회를 포착한 점에 대해서는 그들에게 온전한 공로를 인정한다"며 "그들은 영국 보험사와 연기금들이 부채를 충당하기 위해 원했던 수요를 명확히 파악했다"고 말했다. 알파벳.[사진=로이터 뉴스핌]  2026.02.13 mj72284@newspim.com 하지만 그는 이번 100년물 발행이 시장 거품의 증거라고 강조했다. 블레인 CEO는 "나는 100년 만기 채권이 나온다는 사실 자체가 그보다 더 거품일 수는 없다고 생각한다"며 "만약 당신이 고점의 신호를 찾고 있다면 비록 그것이 훌륭하게 실행된 거래일지라도 그것은 절대적으로 고점의 신호처럼 보인다"고 직격탄을 날렸다. 이어 블레인 CEO는 "AI 하이퍼스케일러들의 '부채 축제'의 엄청난 규모에 대한 요점은 과거 내가 보았던 수많은 상황들을 떠올리게 한다"며 "특히 시장이 하나의 테마를 잡고 그들이 무엇을 사고 있는지 정말로 이해하지 못한 채 극단으로 치닫는 상황 말이다"라고 비판했다. 전문가들은 알파벳의 이번 움직임이 자금 조달 다각화 차원이라고 분석하면서도 리스크를 우려했다. 페더레이티드 헤르메스의 나추 초칼링엄 런던 크레딧 책임자는 "알파벳이 AI 자본지출(CAPEX)을 자금 조달하기 위해 시장의 맨 끝단(초장기물)에서 파운드화 발행을 준비한 것은 흥미롭다"며 "그들은 보험사와 연기금 수요를 활용하고 미국 달러 시장의 과포화를 피하기 위해 자금 조달원을 다각화하려는 것"이라고 설명했다. 프리미어 미튼의 사이먼 프라이어 채권 펀드 매니저는 100년물 발행이 여전히 "검증되지 않은 바다"라고 경고했다. 프라이어 매니저는 "구매자들은 기술 기업들이 주식 시장에서 사상 최고치를 기록하고 있고 업계의 본질이 끊임없이 진화하고 있음에도 불구하고 혼란스러운 글로벌 및 현지 정치 환경 속에서 6%를 조금 넘는 수익률에 자금을 묶어두게 될 것"이라고 지적했다. 무지니치앤코의 타티아나 그레일 카스트로 공공시장 공동 대표는 이번 발행이 투자자들의 '믿음'에 기반하고 있다고 봤다. 그는 "당신은 그 회사가 향후 100년 동안 이자를 지급하기 위해 존재할 것이라는 점에 올라타는 것"이라며 "이건 매우 드문 일이며 심지어 정부들도 100년 만기 부채를 잘 발행하지 않는다"고 말했다. 영화 '빅쇼트'의 실제 인물로 알려진 마이클 버리도 알파벳의 100년물 채권 발행에 우려를 표시했다. 버리는 소셜미디어 엑스(X, 옛 트위터)에 "알파벳이 100년 만기 채권 발행을 모색하고 있다"며 "이런 일이 마지막으로 있었던 것은 1997년의 모토롤라였는데 그해는 모토롤라가 거물(big deal)로 여겨졌던 마지막 해였다"고 지적했다. 그러면서 "1997년 초 모토롤라는 미국에서 시가총액 상위 25위이자 매출 상위 25위 기업이었다"며 "오늘날 모토롤라는 매출 110억달러에 불과한 시가총액 232위 기업"이라고 덧붙였다.    mj72284@newspim.com 2026-02-13 03:24
기사 번역
결과물 출력을 준비하고 있어요.
종목 추적기

S&P 500 기업 중 기사 내용이 영향을 줄 종목 추적

결과물 출력을 준비하고 있어요.

긍정 영향 종목

  • Lockheed Martin Corp. Industrials
    우크라이나 안보 지원 강화 기대감으로 방산 수요 증가 직접적. 미·러 긴장 완화 불확실성 속에서도 방위산업 매출 안정성 강화 예상됨.

부정 영향 종목

  • Caterpillar Inc. Industrials
    우크라이나 전쟁 장기화 시 건설 및 중장비 수요 불확실성 직접적. 글로벌 인프라 투자 지연으로 매출 성장 둔화 가능성 있음.
이 내용에 포함된 데이터와 의견은 뉴스핌 AI가 분석한 결과입니다. 정보 제공 목적으로만 작성되었으며, 특정 종목 매매를 권유하지 않습니다. 투자 판단 및 결과에 대한 책임은 투자자 본인에게 있습니다. 주식 투자는 원금 손실 가능성이 있으므로, 투자 전 충분한 조사와 전문가 상담을 권장합니다.
안다쇼핑
Top으로 이동