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[해외] 버냉키 연준의장, "경제적 기회의 증대: 도전과 전략" 연설(원문)

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Remarks by Chairman Ben S. BernankeAt the Fifteenth Congressional District of Texas’ Fifth Regional Issues Conference, Washington, D.C., Washington, D.C.,June 13, 2006 Increasing Economic Opportunity: Challenges and Strategies I am pleased to be here to discuss some strategies for helping families, particularly lower-income families, improve their economic and financial well-being. Families today face a financial marketplace that is increasingly complex, with numerous products and service providers from which to choose. Today I will touch on several approaches for helping people of modest means take advantage of these financial opportunities while managing the risks and avoiding possible pitfalls. Today’s Financial Marketplace Technological advances have dramatically transformed the provision of financial products and services in recent years. To cite just one example, the expanded use of computerized credit-scoring models, by reducing the costs of making loans and by increasing the range of assets that lenders can sell on the secondary market, has made possible the extension of credit to a larger group of borrowers. Indeed, we have seen an increasingly wide array of products being offered to consumers across a range of incomes, leading to what has been called the democratization of credit. Likewise, technological innovation has enhanced financial services, such as banking services, and increased the variety of financial products available to savers.The range of providers in consumer financial markets has also increased, with the number of nonbank entities offering credit and other financial services having risen particularly quickly. For example, a recent study of alternative providers of financial services found the number of nonbank check-cashing establishments doubled in the United States between 1996 and 2001.1 Payday lending outlets, a source of credit that was almost non-existent a decade ago, now number more than 10,000. And data from the Survey of Consumers Finances, a triennial survey sponsored by the Federal Reserve Board, indicate that the share of households with a loan from a finance company increased from 13 percent in 1992 to 25 percent in 2004. Financial Challenges of Lower-Income FamiliesDespite the increased complexity of financial products and the wider availability of credit in many forms, U.S. households overall have been managing their personal finances well. On average, debt burdens appear to be at manageable levels, and delinquency rates on consumer loans and home mortgages have been low. Measured relative to disposable income, household net worth is at a fairly high level, although still below the peak reached earlier this decade. Families with low to moderate incomes, however, face special financial challenges. These families generally have less of a cushion to absorb unanticipated expenses or to deal with adverse circumstances, such as the loss of employment or a serious health problem. Results from the Survey of Consumer Finances show that the median net worth for households in the lowest income quintile--those whose income placed them in the bottom fifth of the population--was only $7,500 in 2004, well below the median for all survey respondents of $93,000.2 The Survey data also indicate that households in the lowest quintile were significantly less likely than the average respondent to maintain a checking or savings account; almost 25 percent of those families were "unbanked," compared to less than 10 percent of families in the other income quintiles. The reasons given for not having an account varied: Some respondents said they would not write enough checks to make having an account worthwhile, but others were dissuaded by minimum balance requirements or said that they did not have enough money to justify opening an account. In some cases, a lack of knowledge about the services that banks offer or even a distrust of banks is likely a factor. The Survey also found that lower-income households are less able than others to manage their debts. A greater fraction of these households had debt-to-income ratios of 40 percent or more or had a payment past due at least sixty days. The data also reveal that only 40 percent of families in the lowest quintile own a home, compared with a homeownership rate of 69 percent among all families surveyed. Finally, the data on retirement account ownership show an even larger gap, with only 10 percent of lowest-quintile families holding a retirement account, whereas 50 percent of all families responding to the survey reported participation in some type of retirement savings plan. How can these disparities be addressed? Some general approaches to helping families of modest means build assets and improve their economic well-being include community economic development, financial education, and programs that encourage saving and investment. In the remainder of my remarks, I will discuss each of these approaches briefly and offer some insights into their effectiveness based on research and experience.Community Economic Development In my time with the Federal Reserve, I have had a number of opportunities to meet with community economic development leaders--representatives of groups working to assist lower-income families become homeowners, start small businesses, better manage their finances, and save for the future. In fact, my first trip as a Federal Reserve Board member was to Brownsville, Texas, where I saw how a grassroots nonprofit organization is helping to build communities and to provide residents with the chance to build wealth through homeownership. The Community Development Corporation (CDC) of Brownsville works with multiple funding partners--governments at all levels, financial institutions, foundations, and corporations--to construct housing and to design innovative loan products that enable low-income families to qualify for mortgage credit. For example, because of the mix of funding sources, mortgage loans can be offered with features such as down‑payment assistance or a below-market interest rate. The CDC of Brownsville also offers a program that allows prospective homeowners to acquire "sweat equity" in a property by working on construction teams to help build their own new home and those of other participating families. As in the case of many community development organizations, the Brownsville CDC has also made financial education a critical element of its efforts to help lower-income residents improve their financial status. For example, participation in financial counseling or in an education program is typically required for a borrower to obtain a loan through the CDC or through one of its lending partners. However, the broader aim of these programs is to improve borrowers’ prospects for longer-term success in maintaining their credit and handling their overall finances. Since 1994, through this combination of leveraged financing arrangements and borrower education, the CDC of Brownsville has helped make homeownership possible for more than 2,500 low-income families. I cite the Brownsville example because of the opportunity that I had to learn about their work (and I recently had a similar opportunity to see some impressive community development efforts in the Anacostia neighborhood of the District of Columbia). But this localized approach to community development and wealth-building is playing out in neighborhoods throughout the country, in most cases through strategies tailored to the distinct needs of the particular community.Financial Education and Financial LiteracyFinancial education has not only been integral to community development but has also begun to play a larger role in the broader consumer market. Clearly, to choose wisely from the wide variety of financial products and providers available, consumers must have at least basic financial knowledge. People who understand the financial aspects of purchasing a home or starting a business, or who appreciate the importance of saving for children’s education or retirement, will almost certainly be economically better off than those without that vital information. Financial literacy can be acquired through many channels: in school, on the job, through community programs and counseling, or through self-education and experience.Studies generally find that people receiving financial education or counseling have better financial outcomes. For example, research that analyzed data on nearly 40,000 mortgage loans targeted to lower-income borrowers found that families that received individual financial counseling were less likely later to become delinquent on their mortgage payments.3 Similarly, another study found that borrowers who sought and received assistance from a credit counseling agency improved their credit management, in particular, by reducing the number of credit accounts on which they carried positive balances, cutting overall debt, and reducing delinquency rates.4 More broadly, the research shows that financial knowledge is correlated with good financial outcomes; for example, individuals familiar with basic financial concepts and products have been found to be more likely to balance their checkbook every month, budget for savings, and hold investment accounts.5 Studies that establish an association between financial knowledge and good financial outcomes are encouraging, but they do not necessarily prove that financial training and counseling are the causes of the better outcomes. It could be, for example, that counseling is associated with better financial outcomes because the consumers who choose to seek counseling are the ones who are already better informed or more motivated to make good financial decisions. In medicine and other fields, researchers gain a better understanding of what causes what by doing controlled studies, in which some subjects are randomly assigned a particular treatment while others do not receive it. To translate this idea to the analysis of the effects of financial counseling, the Federal Reserve Board’s Division of Consumer and Community Affairs is collaborating with the Department of Defense to conduct a three-year study of the effects of financial education. This study will evaluate the impact of various educational programs on the financial decisions of soldiers and their families. It includes a treatment group of those receiving financial education, with the programs each family receives and when they receive it being determined randomly, and a control group of similar soldiers and their families who have not received this formal financial education. Because assignments of individuals to programs will be random, any observed changes in behavior can be more reliably attributed to the type and amount of counseling received. Among other things, the results of this study should help us better understand whether financial education leads to changes in behavior for participants in general or only for those at critical teaching moments, such as the period before making a major financial decision such as choosing a mortgage.I would like to say just a few words about the Federal Reserve’s broader role in promoting consumers’ understanding of financial products and services. Beyond conducting surveys of consumers and doing research, we work in a number of ways to support consumers in their financial decisionmaking. For example, through our consumer protection rule-writing authority, the Federal Reserve sets requirements that specify the information that must be disclosed to consumers about the terms and fees associated with credit and deposit accounts. These disclosures provide consumers with the essential information they need to assess the costs and benefits of financial services and compare products among different providers. We are currently reviewing many of our disclosures and plan to use focus groups and other methods to try to make these disclosures as clear and as user-friendly as possible. The Federal Reserve System also works to promote financial education and financial literacy through various outreach and educational activities. We provide a great deal of substantive financial information, including interactive tools for economic education, on our education website www.federalreserveeducation.org. The website links to a wide variety of financial education resources at the local, regional, and national levels.Additionally, the Federal Reserved Board collaborates with educational and community development organizations to support their efforts. Our national partners include the Jump$tart Coalition for Personal Financial Literacy, the Conference of Mayors’ DollarWi$e Campaign, Operation HOPE, the American Savings Education Council, and America Saves, among others. At the regional level, the twelve Federal Reserve Banks work with organizations to support financial education and financial literacy. For example, the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland has worked with community financial educators to form regional networks that combine resources and share best practices. The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago sponsors "MoneySmart Week," partnering with banks, businesses, government agencies, schools, community organizations, and libraries to host activities designed to help consumers learn how to manage money. The Federal Reserve Banks of San Francisco and Minneapolis have worked with leaders in the Native American community to develop financial education materials. My recent testimony to Congress on financial literacy provided information on many other projects and programs. 6 The Federal Reserve will continue to make financial education a priority.Strategies to Encourage SavingEven if people know that they would be better off if they saved more or budgeted more wisely, we all know from personal experience that translating good intentions into action can be difficult. (Think about how hard it is to keep New Year’s resolutions.) The field of behavioral economics, which studies economic and financial decisions from a psychological perspective, has cast new light on consumer behavior and led to recommendations about how to improve people’s financial management. For example, studies of individual choices in 401(k) savings plans strongly suggest that workers do not pay adequate attention to their saving and investment decisions. Notably, despite the tax advantages of 401(k) contributions and, in some cases, a generous employer match, one-quarter of workers eligible for 401(k) plans do not participate. Studies have found, however, that if firms change the presentation of the plan from an "opt-in" choice to an "opt-out" choice, in which workers are automatically enrolled unless they actively choose to remain out of the plan, participation rates increase substantially.7 The impact of changing from "opt-in" to "opt-out" is particularly evident for younger and lower-income workers, who may have less financial expertise.In addition, participants in savings plans evidently do not understand the various investment options that are offered. A survey by the investment management firm, The Vanguard Group, found that many plan participants cannot assess the risk inherent in different types of financial assets; for example, many did not appreciate that a diversified equity mutual fund is generally less risky than keeping most of one’s wealth in the form of the employer’s stock.8 Indeed, employees appear to invest heavily in their company’s stock despite the fact that their income is already tied to the fortunes of their employer. More than one-quarter of 401(k) balances are held in company stock, and this high share arises not only from an employer match but from voluntary purchases as well.9These insights into consumer behavior have prompted some changes in the design of retirement plans and in education programs focused on saving for retirement. More employers now feature automatic enrollment in their 401(k) plans in an effort to boost participation. Also, some have set the default investment option to a diversified portfolio that is rebalanced automatically as the worker ages or have set contribution rates to rise automatically over time in line with salary increases.However, although these changes in program design may boost saving and improve investment choices, they are not a substitute for continued financial education. Employers, including the Federal Reserve Board, offer financial education at the workplace to help their workers gain a better understanding of retirement savings options. Helping people appreciate the importance of saving and giving them the tools they need to translate that knowledge into action remain major challenges.ConclusionLet me close by observing that many factors influence consumer financial behavior. Financial education is clearly central to helping consumers make better decisions for themselves and their families, but policymakers, regulators, nonprofit organizations, and financial service providers must all help ensure that consumers have the tools and the information they need to make better decisions. Success can only come through collaborative efforts. I see much interest today in increased collaboration toward these objectives, both in Washington and around the country.Thank you for the opportunity to speak with you today. I encourage you to continue working together to help provide increased economic opportunity in your communities, and I wish you the best of luck in your efforts. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------Footnotes1. Kenneth Temkin and Noah Sawyer (2004), "Analysis of Alternative Financial Service Providers (781 KB PDF)," report prepared for the Fannie Mae Foundation by the Urban Institute Metropolitan Housing and Communities Policy Center. 2. Brian K. Bucks, Arthur B. Kennickell, and Kevin B. Moore (2006), "Recent Changes in U.S. Family Finances: Evidence from the 2001 and 2004 Survey of Consumer Finances (448 KB PDF)," Federal Reserve Bulletin. 3. Abdighani Hirad and Peter M. Zorn (2001), "A Little Knowledge Is a Good Thing: Empirical Evidence of the Effectiveness of Pre-Purchase Homeownership Counseling (466 KB PDF)," paper presented at "Seeds of Growth - Sustainable CommunityDevelopment: What Works, What Doesn’t and Why?" 4. Gregory Elliehausen, E. Christopher Lundquist, and Michael E. Staten (2003), "The Impact of Credit Counseling on Subsequent Borrower Credit Usage and Payment Behavior (305 KB PDF" (January), paper presented at "Seeds of Growth - Sustainable Community Development: What Works, What Doesn’t and Why?" 5. Jeanne M. Hogarth and Marianne A. Hilgert (2003), "Patterns of Financial Behaviors: Implications for Community Educators and Policymakers (1.7 MB PDF)," paper presented at "Seeds of Growth - Sustainable Community Development: What Works, What Doesn’t and Why?" 6. Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, Financial Literacy, Testimony Before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate, May 23, 2006. 7. Brigitte Madrian and Dennis Shea (2001), "The Power of Suggestion: Inertia in 401(k) Participation and Savings Behavior," Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 116 (November), pp. 1149-87. 8. The Vanguard Group (2002), "Expecting Lower Market Returns in the Near Term," Vanguard Participant Monitor. 9. Jeffrey R. Brown, Nellie Liang, and Scott Weisbenner (2006), "401(k) Matching Contributions in Company Stock: Costs and Benefits for Firms and Workers," Journal of Public Economics, vol. 90 (August), pp. 1315-46.

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[변상문의 화랑담배] 제2회 광복군 변상문의 '화랑담배'는 6·25전쟁 이야기이다. 6·25전쟁 때 희생된 모든 분에게 감사드리고, 그 위대한 희생을 기리기 위해 제목을 '화랑담배'로 정했다.  1940년 9월 17일 중국 중경 가릉호텔에서 성대한 행사가 열렸다. 대한민국 임시정부 광복군 창설식이었다. 미국 한인 동포들이 보내온 돈 4만원으로 조직한 군대였다. 지금 돈으로 환산하면 20억 원 정도 된다. 총사령관 이청천 장군, 참모장 이범석 장군, 제1지대장 이준식, 제2지대장 고운기, 제3지대장 김학규, 제5지대장에 나월환을 임명했다. 지대장은 지금의 사단장에 해당한다. 모두 봉오동 전투, 청산리 전투를 비롯하여 남북 만주에서 전개된 항일무장투쟁에 직접 참여하여 활동한 독립군 출신이었다. 한국광복군 훈련반 제1기 졸업사진. [사진= 독립기념관] 임시정부 주석 김구는 포고문을 통해 "국내외 동포들에게 알립니다. 1940년 9월 17일부로 대한민국 광복군을 창설하였습니다. 광복군은 1907년 8월 1일 일제가 대한제국 군대를 해산한 날이 바로 광복군 창설일임을 선언합니다. 광복군은 구 한국군의 후신으로 33년간에 걸친 의병과 독립군의 항일무장투쟁을 계승한 전통 무장 조직입니다"라고 했다. 대한제국 국군-의병-독립군의 군맥(軍脈)과 군혼(軍魂)을 분명하게 잇고 있음을 천명한 것이다. 부대 편성은 소대, 중대, 대대, 연대, 여단, 사단 6단으로 편성하였다. 총 3개 사단을 조직할 계획이었다. 그러나 인원이 적은 상황에서 우선 지대를 만들고, 각 지대를 구대와 분대로 연계한 전투부대를 구성했다. 임시정부에서 1940년 9월 19일 중국 국민당 정부에 통보한 '한국광복군 총사령부 직원 명단'에 의하면, 부대 규모가 총사령부와 4개 단위부대, 여기에다 조선혁명군 부대까지 포함하여 5000여 명이었다. 임시정부에서는 1941년 12월 연합국의 일원으로 일본에 선전포고했다. 1942년에는 미국 측에 "미국이 제주도를 해방 시켜 주면, 중경에 있는 임시정부를 제주도로 옮긴 후, 광복군이 미군과 함께 한반도 상륙작전을 전개하겠다."라고 제안하였다. 이 제안은 실제로 미국 OSS 부대(지금의 CIA)와 1945년 4월부터 8월까지 강도 높은 국내 진공 작전을 준비했다. 주요 훈련은 3개월 기간에 고공낙하, 암살법(권총에 특수장치를 하여 소리 없이 암살하는 방법), 통신(암호의 작성 및 해독법, 무전기 조작 및 수리), 교란 행동, 정보수집, 폭파 등 이었다. 일과는 07:00∼12:00 오전 훈련, 13:00∼18:00 오후 훈련, 19:00∼22:00 야간 훈련이었다. 주요 임무는 대한민국으로 낙하산과 잠수함으로 침투하여 미 공군 공습에 필요한 지형 등의 정보를 제공하고 일본군 군사시설 탐지 및 파괴 지하 유격대를 조직하여 연합군 상륙작전 시 제2선에서 연결하는 작전이었다. 마침내 1945년 8월 7일 모든 훈련을 마치고 국내진공작전 출정식을 개최했다. 개시일은 8월 10일이었다. 출정식 때 장준하 경기도 공작 반장은 "나는 조국광복을 위해 죽음을 선택했습니다. 내가 나의 죽음을 지불하면, 내 능력껏 그 대가가 조국을 위해서 결제될 것입니다. 나의 각오는 한 장의 정수표입니다. 발생인은 장준하, 결제인은 조국입니다"라는 유서까지 작성했다. / 변상문 국방국악문화진흥회 이사장 2025-09-08 08:00
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'포스트 이시바' 누구?...고이즈미·다카이치 선두 [서울=뉴스핌] 오영상 기자 = 이시바 시게루 일본 총리가 자민당 총재직 사임을 공식화하면서, 일본 정국의 관심은 차기 자민당 총재 선거로 쏠리고 있다. 집권당 총재가 곧 총리직을 맡는 일본 정치 구조상 이번 총재 선거는 사실상 다음 총리를 뽑는 절차다. 자민당은 조만간 새로운 총재 선거 일정을 확정할 예정이다. 이번 선거에서는 지난 2024년 9월 총재 선거에서 이시바 총리와 경합했던 주요 인사들이 다시 출마할 가능성이 높다. 고이즈미 신지로 농림수산상, 다카이치 사나에 전 경제안보담당상, 하야시 요시마사 관방장관, 모테기 도시미쓰 전 간사장, 고바야시 다카유키 전 경제안보담당상 등이 후보군으로 거론된다. 정국 운영이 소수 여당이라는 제약 속에서 이루어지는 만큼, 차기 총재가 야당과 어떻게 연대할지, 어떤 연립 구도를 짤지가 최대 쟁점으로 꼽힌다. '포스트 이시바' 후보로 꼽히고 있는 고이즈미 신지로 일본 농림수산상 [사진=로이터 뉴스핌] ◆ 고이즈미·다카이치 선두권 현재 여론조사에서는 고이즈미 농림수산상과 다카이치 전 경제안보상이 선두권을 형성하고 있다. 니혼게이자이신문 지난달 29~31일 실시한 여론조사에 따르면 차기 총리에 적합한 인물로 다카이치가 23%, 고이즈미가 22%를 기록했다. 나란히 1, 2위다. 자민당 지지층으로 한정하면 고이즈미가 32%로, 다카이치(17%)를 크게 앞서는 것으로 나타났다. 다카이치는 2024년 총재 선거에서 1차 투표에서 1위를 차지했으나 결선에서 이시바에게 역전패했다. 고이즈미 역시 의원 표에서 선두에 올랐지만 당원 표에서 밀리며 결선에 오르지 못했다. 두 사람 모두 당내 기반과 대중적 인지도를 겸비해 차기 선거에서도 가장 주목받는 주자들이다. 고이즈미 농림수산상은 1981년생(44세)으로 고이즈미 준이치로 전 총리의 차남이다. 2009년 중의원 첫 당선 이후 줄곧 '포스트 아베', '차세대 리더'로 주목받았다. 환경상, 농림수산상을 거쳤으며 개혁 성향과 젊은 이미지로 지지층을 넓혔다. 2024년 총선에서 당 선거대책위원장을 맡았으나 참패 책임을 지고 물러났다. 이후 농림수산상으로 복귀해 쌀 유통 개혁 등 농정 개혁에 매진했다. 대중적 인지도와 '고이즈미 브랜드'라는 정치 자산이 최대 강점으로 꼽힌다. 다카이치 전 경제안보상은 1961년생(64세)으로 보수 강경파로 분류되는 여성 정치인이다. 2021년 총재 선거에 첫 도전해 아베 신조 전 총리의 전폭적 지원을 받으며 3위를 기록했다. 2024년 총재 선거 1차 투표에서 최다 득표(의원 72표, 당원 109표)를 얻었으나 결선에서 이시바 총리에게 역전 당했다. 유일한 여성 후보로서 '보수의 아이콘' 이미지를 갖고 있으며, 아베 전 총리와 가까웠던 의원 그룹이 주된 지지 기반이다. 이시바 정권에서 당직 제안을 거절하며 독자 노선을 유지해 왔다. '포스트 이시바' 후보로 꼽히는 다카이치 사나에 전 일본 경제안보담당상 [사진=로이터 뉴스핌] ◆ 하야시·모테기 등 잠룡도 주목 고이즈미와 다카이치 두 선두 주자 외에 잠룡들의 행보도 주목된다. 하야시 요시마사 관방장관은 옛 기시다파 일부의 지지를 받고 있으며, 이시바 정권의 2인자로서 존재감을 키워왔다. 모테기 도시미쓰 전 간사장은 당내 경험과 풍부한 인맥을 강점으로 삼고, 아소 다로 전 부총리와 교류를 통해 지지 기반을 다지고 있다. 고바야시 다카유키 전 경제안보담당상은 5선 의원으로, 동기 의원들과 옛 니카이파의 지원을 받으며 출마 가능성을 열어두고 있다. ◆ 총재 선거 이후에도 정국 '안갯속' 자민당 총재 선거는 국회의원 표와 당원·당우 표를 합산하는 방식이 원칙이지만, 긴급 시에는 국회의원과 지방 지부 대표만 투표하는 '양원 의원 총회' 방식으로 대체될 수 있다. 이 경우 의원 표의 비중이 커져 파벌 역학이 중요해진다. 차기 총재가 선출되더라도 곧바로 정권 안정으로 이어진다는 보장은 없다. 일본 헌법상 총리는 국회에서 지명되는데, 자민·공명 양당은 현재 중의원과 참의원 모두에서 과반을 잃은 상태다. 따라서 야당이 단일 후보를 세워 결집할 경우, 자민당 총재가 총리로 지명되지 못할 가능성도 배제할 수 없다. 자민당 총재가 총리에 오르더라도, 예산안·세제 개혁 법안 등 국정 운영은 야당 협조 없이는 불가능하다. 이런 이유로 차기 총재는 곧바로 '연립 확대'나 '정책 연대'를 추진할 수밖에 없고, 총재 선거 과정에서도 어떤 야당과 손을 잡을지가 핵심 화두가 된다. 결국 이번 자민당 총재 선거는 단순히 차기 지도자를 뽑는 절차를 넘어, 일본 정치가 다당제 속에서 어떤 연립 구도를 구축할지 시험대가 되는 분기점으로 평가된다. goldendog@newspim.com 2025-09-08 09:26
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