삼성증권 리서치센터(센터장 유재성)의 '영문판' 주간 국내외 경제 및 채권시장 전략입니다. 참고하시기 바랍니다.
◆ Overview
- 경제지표 둔화, 글로벌 경기둔화 우려 점증: 한국 금리인상 주춤 전망, 외국인들의 채권 매도 축소도 경기둔화 베팅으로 비춰졌음.
- 시장 오류: 글로벌 경기둔화 우려, 그러나 한국의 경기둔화 연장과는 다름. 외국인 한국 주식 및 채권 동시 매수
- 선진국-개도국간 경제성장률 갭 존재: 선진국 경기회복세 둔화, 중국 한국 등 경제성장세 리드, 하반기 선행지수 바닥 탈출 전망
- 시장금리 점진적 상승폭 확대: 한미간 경기사이클이 다를 때 한국 금리는 한국의 경제성장률에 따라 조정, 한국은행 정상화 추진 정책 기대
▶ Sluggish economic indicators raise concerns over global slowdown: With US and Chinese economic indicators released last week missing the market consensus, concerns are coming to the fore that the slowing global economy will weigh on the Korean one, and may stall the Bank of Korea’s (BOK) rate-hike cycle. Bond selling contracted last week as foreign investors continued to purchase KTB futures—a move seen by the market as betting on a protracted economic slowdown in Korea.
▶ Market mistaken: We, however, attribute the purchasing to concerns over a global economic slowdown—not to the prospect of a prolonged slowdown in Korea. Indeed, foreign investors remain net buyers of Korean equities and bonds.
▶ Economic growth gap key to global economic landscape: We believe the global economic landscape is determined by the growth gap between advanced and emerging markets, and the time lag in different regional economic cycles. We see the disparity in the growth gap as natural—while the advanced markets suffer deleveraging and low growth, emerging markets enjoy high growth on liquidity inflows and little need of deleveraging. The economic cycles of China and Korea suggest that growth in both countries’ leading economic indicators will bottom out in 2H.
▶ Market yields to extend moderate rise: When Korean and US economic cycles do not move hand in hand, Korean yields have historically shown a higher correlation with the Korean economic cycle. Given this, and with the BOK’s looking to bring its policy rates closer to normalized levels, we expect market yields to continue to rise moderately.
◆ Investment strategy
- 듀레이션 축소
- 수익률곡선: 3-10년물간 평탄화
- BBB+ A0 회사채, AA+ 카드채 비중확대 관점 유지
▶ Duration: Reduce duration
▶ Yield curve: Maintain 3/10-year flatteners
▶ Sector: Stay overweight on BBB+, A0 corporate bonds, and AA+ credit card bonds
[삼성증권 최석원 정성수 애널리스트]