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후쿠이 총재, '일본경제 현황과 전망' 게이단렌 연설문(영문)

기사입력 : 2006년12월25일 17:44

최종수정 : 2006년12월25일 17:44

Developments in Japan's Economy in 2006 and the Outlook for 2007
Summary of a Speech Given by Toshihiko Fukui, Governor of the Bank of Japan, to the Board of Councillors of Nippon Keidanren (Japan Business Federation) in Tokyo on December 25, 2006

December 25, 2006
Bank of Japan

Contents

Introduction
I. Developments in Overseas Economies
II. Developments in the Corporate Sector
III. Developments in the Household Sector
IV. Developments in Prices
V. Conduct of Monetary Policy in 2006
VI. New Framework for the Conduct of Monetary Policy
Closing Remarks

Introduction
There is now less than a week until the end of 2006. The year has been marked by the sustained recovery of Japan's economy, which began in January 2002, exceeding the record of the Izanagi boom, the longest postwar economic expansion (57 months during 1965-70). The Bank of Japan terminated the quantitative easing policy in March and in July returned to pursuing a monetary policy in which it controls interest rates. Although Japan's economy still faces further structural changes going forward, the year 2006 can be regarded as a year of steady progress toward normalization after the long adjustment phase since the bursting of the bubble. Today I will review this year's developments in the economy and prices as well as the conduct of monetary policy, and talk about the outlook for 2007.


I. Developments in Overseas Economies
One of the factors behind the sustained recovery of Japan's economy is the continued strong growth of overseas economies. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the global economy is likely to register growth of around 5 percent in 2006 for the third consecutive year. It is a generally accepted view that the global economy will continue to expand in 2007, at around the same pace as in 2006, across a broader range of regions.

As a risk factor to this outlook, developments in the U.S. economy should be mentioned. The pace of growth in the U.S. economy has been slowing recently reflecting decreases in housing investment, while private consumption has so far been firm with a limited slowdown in the pace of growth. Since the adjustment in the housing market seems to be continuing, attention should be paid to future developments in that market and the possible negative effects on private consumption and production. As for prices, the rate of increase in the core consumer price index is still relatively high, despite a moderate decline in crude oil prices. We basically think that inflation pressures are likely to ease gradually in line with the deceleration of economic expansion and the U.S. economy is likely to realize a soft landing and move toward sustainable growth, but both upside and downside risks should be borne in mind.

With regard to developments in other regions, China's economy has continued to expand strongly and economic recovery in the euro area has become more evident. Oil-producing countries, especially those of the Middle East, and the ASEAN economies continue to show steady growth. Given these developments, our main scenario is that the global economy as a whole will likely keep expanding through 2007, with possible slowing growth in the U.S. economy being offset by high growth in other regions.


II. Developments in the Corporate Sector
Japanese firms are succeeding in utilizing the strong growth of overseas economies to realize good business performance. In 2006, the strength in the corporate sector, as seen in steady growth of profits and increases in business fixed investment, became more evident. The recently released December Tankan (Short-Term Economic Survey of Enterprises in Japan) shows that firms are projecting growth in their current profits for the fifth consecutive year since fiscal 2002 and the ratio of current profits to sales is exceeding the peak reached in the bubble era. In this situation, business sentiment continues to be favorable and firms are planning to increase fixed investment for the fourth consecutive year. Moreover, their projections of both current profits and fixed investment for fiscal 2006 have been revised upward from the September Tankan.

Nevertheless, we believe the current strength in business fixed investment does not indicate "overheating," given that firms are increasing investment to reinforce their production capacity not only to meet domestic demand but also to capture opportunities for higher profits in growing overseas markets. Firms continue to scrutinize the investment profitability of each project amid greater exposure to the discipline of the capital market. Continuation of this disciplined investment stance under accommodative financial conditions is important if Japan's economy is to follow the path of sustainable growth.


III. Developments in the Household Sector
The positive influence of the strength in the corporate sector is feeding through to the household sector at a moderate pace. Throughout 2006, the number of employees has increased steadily. A closer look reveals that not only part-time employees but also full-time employees have been increasing steadily. Many firms seem to have hired a greater number of new graduates this year. The December Tankan shows that both large and small firms are planning to continue hiring more new graduates in the coming year. Labor market conditions are tightening as suggested by the fact that the annual average of the ratio of job offers to applicants is almost certain to exceed 1.00 for the first time in 14 years and the unemployment rate decreased further from last year's level. As for wages, with overtime and bonus payments rising, household income overall is increasing.

Nonetheless, the pace at which the positive influence of the corporate sector is feeding through to the household sector is, in fact, slow relative to the corporate sector's strength. This is evident especially in regular payments, which remain virtually unchanged year on year. This seems to be responsible for the often-heard statement that it is difficult to realize that Japan is in the middle of the longest postwar economic expansion. The slowness of the increase in regular payments is attributable to both the stance of firms and the preference of employees: given the intensifying global competition, firms remain cautious about raising regular payments because this is likely to push up fixed costs; while employees, having experienced a severe employment situation, continue to prefer stable employment to a wage increase.

However, in a situation where the population of those 15 years old and over has been leveling off, further tightening of labor market conditions seems inevitable if demand for employees remains on the rise in line with the continuing economic expansion. Given this situation, upward pressures on wages are likely to increase gradually. Wages for part-time and temporary workers have, in fact, started rising.

If an increase in wages becomes more apparent, the pace of increase in household income is expected to accelerate, thereby firming the sustainability of the upward trend in private consumption. Some indicators related to private consumption have recently been somewhat sluggish, partly reflecting unfavorable weather conditions and consumers holding back from buying before the introduction of new products. Although these developments continue to require close monitoring, our basic view is that private consumption will remain on the rise if increases in household income are in prospect.

Although, as I explained, developments in the corporate sector have been somewhat stronger than projected while those in the household sector have been somewhat weaker, we believe the basic mechanism of an economic expansion based on a virtuous circle of production, income, and spending is in operation. Nevertheless, given the fact that there are some weak developments in indicators related to private consumption and consumer prices, we will carefully examine various types of incoming data and information.


IV. Developments in Prices
With these developments in the economy, the environment surrounding prices has been changing, albeit gradually. In the December Tankan, for the first time in more than a decade, the number of firms that reported a shortage of production capacity outnumbered those reporting an excess, and it has become clear that firms are increasingly feeling a shortage of labor. These developments imply that resource utilization has been rising. Wages are increasing, albeit moderately, particularly in special and overtime payments, and downward pressure on prices stemming from declining unit labor costs has been abating. Furthermore, inflation forecasts of households and firms are being revised upward. For instance, in the December Tankan, the share of firms that replied their sales prices had risen compared to three months earlier increased to levels not seen since the early 1990s.

With such changes in the environment surrounding prices, year-on-year changes in domestic corporate goods prices rose to around 3.5 percent in mid-2006, reflecting increases in prices of international commodities such as crude oil. Although the pace of increase has recently been slowing somewhat due to a softening of crude oil prices, it is expected to continue its uptrend if there were no large fluctuations caused by commodity prices and foreign exchange rates.

On the other hand, although the year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index (CPI) has been on a positive trend, the rate of increase remains very low relative to the improvement in the economic situation. It is possible that the sensitivity of prices to changes in economic activity has been decreasing compared to the past. This tendency has been observed in recent years in economies overseas as well. It is thought that economic globalization as well as deregulation and advances in information and communication technology are behind this phenomenon. If competition with products imported from newly industrialized countries heightens, inflationary pressure is likely to be contained. Likewise, if firms, faced with intensified global competition, become more cautious in raising wages, price developments will be influenced. In the case of Japan, where year-on-year changes in the CPI have been in the process of improving from negative territory, the rate of increase in the CPI tends to be low compared with other major economies. We project that the rate of increase in the CPI will gradually rise as the economy continues its long expansion. However, the pace at which it rises should continue to be watched carefully.


V. Conduct of Monetary Policy in 2006
Looking back on the conduct of monetary policy this year, the Bank terminated the quantitative easing policy in March, and in July it raised the operating target of money market operations (the uncollateralized overnight call rate) from "effectively zero percent" to "around 0.25 percent," bringing the zero interest rate environment to an end after five years.

An underlying factor that enabled us to make this decision was the fact that structural adjustment pressure in the corporate sector and the financial system, which had continued since the bursting of the economic bubble, had mostly been removed. When we introduced the quantitative easing policy, the Japanese economy was in a recession triggered by the collapse of the global IT bubble. Financial institutions were burdened by a huge amount of nonperforming loans (NPLs) and there was strong concern about the stability of the financial system. In this situation, a risk of the economy falling into a vicious circle of falling prices and deteriorating economic activity, in other words a deflationary spiral, was also a concern.

In these circumstances, the quantitative easing policy played a significant role in maintaining the stability of the financial markets and the accommodative financial environment and in preventing a contraction of economic activity. Under the accommodative financial conditions, firms have, after great effort, cast off the three excesses -- excess employees, excess capacity, and excess debt. Financial institutions have almost resolved the NPL problem, and stability was regained in the financial system. Major and regional banks posted their highest-ever profits in fiscal 2005, exceeding the record of the bubble period, and their interim results indicated that their profits have remained high in the current fiscal year. Repayment of public funds totaling 12 trillion yen injected into financial institutions proceeded, with the three major financial groups completing redemption in autumn this year. With the strengthening of the capital position, financial institutions' risk-taking capability has been recovering and as a result their lending attitude has become positive. Against this background, the year-on-year rate of change in outstanding bank loans has turned positive this year for the first time since 1996.


VI. New Framework for the Conduct of Monetary Policy
As the Japanese economy is heading toward normalization, we have altered the framework of monetary policy to support movement in that direction. Under the quantitative easing policy, we conducted monetary policy in line with the commitment expressed in terms of developments in the CPI. This was a way, when we faced the zero constraint on nominal interest rates, to produce an additional monetary easing effect by intentionally sacrificing the flexibility of policymaking. In contrast, the new framework for the conduct of monetary policy, introduced when the quantitative easing policy was terminated, is a forward-looking framework whereby the Bank's thinking behind the conduct of monetary policy is made public along with its projection for the economy and prices and risk factors. At the same time, it was announced that the Policy Board members' "understanding of price stability from a medium- to long-term viewpoint" expressed in the year-on-year changes in the CPI was an approximate range between zero and two percent, and that the members would conduct monetary policy in the light of this understanding.

Japan's economy is expected to continue its expansion through fiscal 2007 with gradual rises in the rate of increase in the CPI. In other words, Japan's economy is expected to achieve sustainable growth under price stability. Our assessment is that an upside risk to this projection would be large fluctuations in economic activity and prices as the stimulative effect of monetary policy is further increasing, while a downside risk would be the possibility that economic expansion and rising prices may stall. However, at present, there is no bias toward either of these risks. We will conduct monetary policy in light of this assessment, and if economic activity and prices develop in line with the projection, we will adjust the level of interest rates gradually in the light of developments in economic activity and prices, while maintaining the accommodative financial conditions ensuing from very low interest rates for some time.

Of course, a forward-looking approach does not imply that we have predetermined the level of the target rate in the future or the timing of a policy change. There are inflows of new information regarding the state of economic activity and prices every day. We will make our best judgment based on careful assessment of such incoming data and a candid view of the Japanese economy in the future.


Closing Remarks
Japan's economy is expected to continue its moderate expansion in the coming year. However, it will be increasingly important to address medium- to long-term issues that Japan's economy faces, such as the declining birthrate and aging population as well as fiscal consolidation. To provide a basis for dealing with these issues, achieving sustainable economic growth under price stability is vital from a macroeconomic policy perspective. Minimizing economic and price fluctuations is an important prerequisite for firms and households to engage in economic activity without anxiety. Fulfillment of this prerequisite will lead to full utilization of Japan's economic potential and its realization in actual growth. The Bank will continue to conduct monetary policy appropriately by utilizing and refining the new framework to support the attainment of the desired state of the economy.

[뉴스핌 베스트 기사]

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尹 지지율 35.2% 제자리걸음…'동해 석유' 발표 별무신통 [서울=뉴스핌] 박성준 기자 = 윤석열 대통령의 지지율이 소폭 상승해 30%대 중반을 기록했다는 여론조사 결과가 13일 발표됐다. 종합뉴스통신 뉴스핌 의뢰로 여론조사 전문업체 미디어리서치가 지난 10~11일 전국 만 18세 이상 남녀 1001명에게 물은 결과 윤 대통령의 국정운영에 대한 긍정평가는 35.2%로 집계됐다. 부정평가는 62.2%로 나타났다. '잘 모름'에 답한 비율은 2.6%다. 지난 조사 대비 긍정평가는 0.1%포인트(p) 상승했고 부정평가는 0.6%p 하락했다. 긍정평가와 부정평가 간 격차는 27.0%p다. 연령별로 보면 40대에서 긍·부정 평가 격차가 극명하게 드러났다. 만 18세~29세에서 '잘함'은 26.5% '잘 못함' 72.1%였고, 30대에서는 '잘함' 32.3% '잘 못함' 64.4%였다. 40대는 '잘함' 22.5% '잘 못함' 75.3%, 50대는 '잘함' 32.3% '잘 못함' 66.5%로 집계됐다. 60대는 '잘함' 45.5% '잘 못함' 51.4%였고, 70대 이상에서는 '잘함'이 55.0%로 '잘 못함'(40.1%)보다 높게 나타났다. 지역별로는 서울 '잘함' 37.0%, '잘 못함'은 60.1%로 집계됐다. 경기·인천 '잘함' 32.6% '잘 못함' 66.2%, 대전·충청·세종 '잘함' 34.8% '잘 못함' 63.6%, 부산·울산·경남 '잘함' 35.7% '잘 못함' 59.9%로 나타났다. 대구·경북은 '잘함' 51.9% '잘 못함' 45.6%, 전남·광주·전북 '잘함' 21.9% '잘 못함' 75.1%로 나타났다. 강원·제주는 '잘함' 38.0% '잘 못함' 54.6%로 집계됐다. 성별로도 남녀 모두 부정평가가 우세했다. 남성은 '잘함' 32.4% '잘 못함' 65.7%, 여성은 '잘함' 38.0% '잘 못함' 58.8%였다. 김대은 미디어리서치 대표는 윤 대통령 지지율 결과에 대해 "포항 영일만 앞바다의 석유, 천연가스 매장 가능성 국정브리핑과 북한의 오물풍선 살포로 인한 9·19 군사합의 파기 등의 이슈를 거치면서 지지율 반등을 노릴 수 있었다"며 "그러나 액트지오사에 탐사 분석을 맡긴 배경에 대한 의혹이 증폭되고 있고, 육군 훈련병 영결식에 참석하는 대신 여당 워크숍에 가는 모습 등 때문에 민심이 움직이지 않았다"고 평가했다. 차재권 부경대 정치외교학과 교수는 "앞으로 큰 이슈가 발생하지 않는다면 지지율은 떨어지지도, 올라가지도 않을 것 같다"며 "많은 국민이 기대도 하지 않고 그렇다고 아예 버리지도 못하고 있는 상황으로 보인다. 지지율이 올라가려면 획기적 변화가 있어야 한다"고 분석했다. 이번 여론조사는 성·연령·지역별 인구비례 할당 추출 방식으로 추출된 표본을 구조화된 설문지를 이용한 무선(100%) ARS 전화조사 방식으로 실시했으며 응답률은 3.4%, 표본오차는 95% 신뢰수준에 ±3.1%p다. 통계보정은 2024년 1월말 행정안전부 주민등록 인구통계를 기준으로 성별 연령별 지역별 가중 값을 부여(셀가중)했다. 자세한 내용은 중앙선거여론조사심의위원회 홈페이지를 참조하면 된다. parksj@newspim.com 2024-06-13 06:00
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공매도 금지 내년 3월까지 연장...기관 상환기간 제한키로 [서울=뉴스핌] 송기욱 기자 = 당정이 기관 공매도의 대차 상환기간을 90일 단위로 최대 4번까지 연장할 수 있도록 제한하기로 했다. 아울러 불법 공매도 벌금이 현행 부당이득액의 3~5배에서 4~6배로 상향되는 등 제재도 강화된다. 공매도 금지조치는 '불법 공매도 중앙차단시스템'이 구축되는 내년 3월까지 연장된다. 정점식 국민의힘 정책위의장은 13일 오전 국회에서 '공매도 제도개선' 민당정협의회를 가진 뒤 브리핑을 통해 이같이 말했다. [서울=뉴스핌] 이형석 기자 = 추경호 국민의힘 원내대표가 13일 오전 서울 여의도 국회에서 열린 시장질서 확립을 위한 공매도 제도개선 민당정협의회에서 모두발언을 하고 있다. 2024.06.13 leehs@newspim.com 당정은 우선 공매도 전산시스템을 구축해 무차입 공매도를 차단하겠다고 밝혔다. 정 정책위의장은 "전체 공매도 거래의 92% 이상을 차지하는 기관투자자에게 무차입 공매도를 실시간 사전 차단하는 자체적인 기관내 잔고관리 시스템의 구축을 의무화하겠다"고 설명했다. 이와 함께 한국거래소에 중앙점검시스템(NSDS)을 추가 구축해 기관투자자의 불법 공매도를 3일 내 전수점검하고 기관 내 잔고관리 시스템 유효성도 검증하겠다는 방침이다. 정 정책위의장은 또 "기관투자자 뿐만 아니라 모든 법인투자자는 무차입 공매도를 예방하기 위한 내부 통제기준을 마련해 운영해야 한다"면서 "증권사도 기관투자자의 공매도 전산시스템과 모든 기관, 법인투자자의 내부통제기준을 확인해야 하고, 확인된 투자자만 공매도 주문을 낼 수 있도록 할 것"이라고 강조했다. 당정은 또 공매도를 위한 대차의 상환기간을 제한하고 개인투자자의 공매도 접근성을 개선하겠다고 설명했다. 공매도를 목적으로 빌린 주식은 90일 단위로 연장하되, 12개월 이내 상환하도록 제한하고 개인 대주의 현금 담보비율을 대차 수준인 10%로 인하, 코스피200 주식의 경우 기관보다 낮은 120%를 적용하기로 했다. [서울=뉴스핌] 이형석 기자 = 이복현 금융감독원장이 13일 오전 서울 여의도 국회에서 열린 시장질서 확립을 위한 공매도 제도개선 민당정협의회에서 모두발언을 하고 있다. 2024.06.13 leehs@newspim.com 불법 공매도에 대한 처벌과 제재는 강화하기로 했다. 불법 공매도 벌금을 현행 부당이득액 3~5배에서 4~6배로 상향하고, 부당이득액 규모에 따라 징역을 가중할 수 있도록 했다. 아울러 불법 공매도 거래자에 대한 금융투자상품 거래 제한과 임원선임 제한, 계좌 지급정지도 도입할 예정이다. 정 정책위의장은 "오늘 민당정협의는 공매도 문제를 근본적으로 개선해 시장 질서를 확립해나가는 시작점이 될 것"이라며 "민당정은 협력체계를 지속해나가면서 오는 2025년 3월말까지 철저한 공매도 전산시스템을 구축하고 제도개선을 위한 법률 개정도 연내 처리될 수 있도록 적극 추진하겠다"고 말했다. 국민의힘은 전산시스템이 완비되는 내년 3월 말까지 현재의 공매도 금지조치를 연장해줄 것을 요청했다. 이날 협의회에는 추경호 국민의힘 원내대표와 정점식 정책위의장, 김주현 금융위원장, 이복현 금융감독원장, 정은보 한국거래소 이사장 등이 참석했다. oneway@newspim.com 2024-06-13 12:06
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